DAY 26 — MARCH 25, 2026

Iran Dismisses Trump's Peace Claims as Strikes Kill 12 in Tehran

The Wartime Report · Published March 25, 2026 · Last updated: March 25, 2026 — 9:40 PM UTC

Summary

Day 26 brought an escalating gap between rhetoric and reality. President Trump declared the "war has been won" and claimed VP Vance, Secretary Rubio, Witkoff, and Kushner were all participating in talks with Iran — but Tehran's military forcefully dismissed any negotiations. Pakistan offered to host peace talks and reportedly delivered a US 15-point plan addressing Iran's nuclear and missile programs and Strait of Hormuz shipping. On the ground, Israeli warplanes launched new strikes on Tehran government infrastructure, Iran hit back with missiles toward Israel, and the fighting expanded into Lebanon with Israeli jets roaring over Beirut and renewed evacuation warnings for Dahiya. The Pentagon ordered ~2,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne deployed — bringing total additional ground forces in the region to nearly 7,000. Oil plunged 6% to $94/barrel on the diplomatic signals. Iran's UN ambassador has reported at least 1,348 civilians killed since Feb 28; independent monitors put the toll above 1,440. Over 1,000 have died in Lebanon.

Destroyed police station in Navab neighborhood, Tehran — Destroyed police station in Tehran's Navab neighborhood — Wikimedia Commons

Military Developments

Tehran struck: US-Israeli airstrikes hit southern Tehran, killing at least 12 and wounding 28, according to Iranian state media.
Mutual airstrikes: Israel and Iran exchanged airstrikes on Wednesday, continuing the pattern of escalatory tit-for-tat strikes.
Iran missile wave: Iran fired new waves of missiles targeting Israel and Gulf states. One missile struck a street in Tel Aviv. A CNN team on the ground witnessed what appeared to be cluster munitions from an Iranian launch.
Gulf under fire: Saudi Arabia intercepted at least 30 drones since Tuesday evening; Kuwait intercepted 6, with drones hitting a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport causing a fire; Bahrain sounded air-raid sirens early Wednesday. A drone strike also hit a residential building in Erbil, Iraq.
82nd Airborne deployment: Between 2,000 and 3,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division have received written deployment orders, per a US government official speaking to NPR. Total additional ground forces in the region now approaching 7,000–8,000.
🔴 Iran's navy "annihilated": The US has destroyed 140 Iranian naval vessels, including nearly 50 mine-layers — "the largest elimination of a navy on the face of the planet in a three-week period since World War II," per a Pentagon spokesperson.
Israel plans to ramp up attacks: Israel is concerned the war might end before it can dismantle Iran's weapons programs. Two senior Israeli officials said Israel plans to escalate its strikes.
Beirut strikes: Israeli warplanes roared low over Beirut until dawn; renewed evacuation warnings issued for Dahiya (southern suburbs), a Hezbollah stronghold. Lebanon's NNA confirmed strikes around 4:30 AM.
Israel targets Tehran infrastructure: Israeli military announced new wave of strikes on government infrastructure in Tehran.
Lebanon occupation plan: Israel announced plans to occupy parts of southern Lebanon.
USS Abraham Lincoln targeted: Trump claimed Iran fired more than 100 missiles at the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier, saying "every single one of them was knocked down."

Political Developments

Trump: "War has been won": Trump declared victory and named VP Vance, Secretary Rubio, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner as participating in Iran talks.
🔴 Iran REJECTS 15-point plan: Iran officially rejected the US ceasefire proposal delivered via Pakistan, calling it "extremely maximalist and unreasonable" — "not beautiful even on paper." Press TV quoted an official: "Iran will end the war when it decides to do so and when its own conditions are met." The US insists Iran has NOT rejected the proposal.
Iran's 5-point counterproposal: (1) Halt killings of Iranian officials; (2) Guarantees no future war will be waged against Iran; (3) War reparations; (4) End of all hostilities; (5) Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz (NPR).
Friday talks still possible: Despite the rejection, mediators (Egypt, Pakistan) are pushing for possible in-person US-Iran talks as soon as Friday in Pakistan.
15-point plan details: The US proposal addressed sanctions relief, rollback of Iran's nuclear program, missile limits, restrictions on support for armed groups, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Senate rejects war powers: The US Senate voted down a war powers resolution that would have required congressional authorization for continued military action against Iran.
AP-NORC poll: Most Americans say US military action against Iran has gone too far.
Pakistan mediation: Pakistan delivered the US plan to Tehran and is positioned uniquely — Shia minority, good Iran ties, defence agreement with Saudi Arabia, no US bases on its soil. Egyptian FM Abdelatty said Cairo is also "ready to host any meetings" and supports Trump's initiative.
Turkey/Türkiye also mediating: Ankara has been "playing a role passing messages" between Tehran and Washington, per AK Party VP for foreign affairs Harun Armagan.
Israel surprised by ceasefire plan: Israeli officials were caught off guard by the submission of a ceasefire proposal and are advocating for Trump to continue the war.
China engagement: China's FM Wang Yi spoke with his Iranian counterpart at Tehran's request, saying he hoped "all sides will seize every opportunity" for peace. China is the leading buyer of Iranian oil.
No direct Iran-US talks: Iran confirmed there have been no direct communications with Washington since the war began — only messages exchanged through mediators.
Hormuz partial opening: Iran told the UN maritime organization that "non-hostile" ships may pass through the Strait of Hormuz — defined as those not participating in or supporting aggression against Iran, and not belonging to the US or Israel.
March 28 deadline: Trump's ultimatum for Iran to fully reopen Hormuz is now 3 days away.
🔴 UN chief: war "out of control": UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned the Middle East conflict has "broken past the limits even leaders thought imaginable," saying "the world is staring down the barrel of a wider war, a rising tide of human suffering, and a deeper global economic shock. This has gone too far." He urged an end to Israeli operations in Lebanon and called for Hezbollah to stop attacks on Israel.
Confusion over Iran's stance: Reuters cited a senior Iranian official saying the response was "not positive" but still under review. Press TV said outright rejection. Fars News said Iran considers talks "not logical." Despite the contradictions, mediators report possible in-person talks as early as this weekend.
🔴 Iran demands Lebanon in ceasefire: Iran has told intermediaries that Lebanon must be included in any ceasefire agreement with the US and Israel, according to six regional sources familiar with Iran's position. This significantly complicates negotiations by linking the Iran and Lebanon fronts.
Iran "reviewing" but won't talk: Reuters reports Iran says it is reviewing the US proposal but has "no interest in holding talks" — a nuanced position that keeps the door cracked while maintaining defiance publicly.
Vance trip planned: Two senior Trump administration officials told CNN that talks are underway for VP Vance to travel to Pakistan or potentially Turkey for direct negotiations, though timing remains fluid.
Iran FM Araghchi clarifies: "The US is sending messages through different mediators, which does not mean negotiations" — formally distancing Tehran from Trump's narrative of active talks.
White House: "hit harder": The White House warned Iran that Trump prefers a peaceful path but is prepared to "hit harder than they have ever been hit before" if necessary. Simultaneously said weekend talks are proceeding "apace" despite Iran's rejection.
Israel expanding "buffer zone": Israel announced it is expanding its buffer zone in southern Lebanon.
GOP dissent on troops: Republican Rep. Nancy Mace said she will not support deploying US troops to Iran after a House Armed Services Committee briefing.

Economic Impact

Oil whiplash continues: Brent plunged 6% to $94/barrel on peace hopes, then rebounded to ~$100/barrel after Iran rejected the ceasefire plan. Now trading around $99.75–$100.54, down ~3.8% on the day.
WTI crude: Approximately $87/barrel.
Hormuz context: Asia buys ~80% of oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz — any opening, even partial, has outsized market impact.
First tanker transit: Thai energy company Bangchak confirmed a tanker safely transited the Strait of Hormuz under Iran's "non-hostile" ship policy — the first known transit since the war began. The vessel is crossing the Indian Ocean with crude oil due in Thailand in early April.
Philippines energy emergency: President Marcos Jr. declared a national energy emergency, citing "imminent danger of critically low energy supply." The government is distributing fuel subsidies and bracing for possible evacuation of 2.4 million Filipinos in the Middle East.

What to Watch

March 28 Hormuz deadline: 3 days remain — will Iran's partial "non-hostile ships" opening satisfy Trump, or escalate pressure?
Friday talks in Pakistan: Iran rejected the 15-point plan but mediators still pushing for in-person talks Friday. Will Iran show up?
China's role: Beijing's engagement at Tehran's request could signal Iran seeking an exit ramp — or leverage.
Massive troop buildup: 1,000+ paratroopers (82nd Airborne) + 5,000 Marines + thousands of sailors deploying — amphibious assault capability now in theater.
Casualty toll: At least 1,348–1,440 Iranian civilians and 1,000+ in Lebanon killed. UN human rights chief Volker Türk warned countries are "flirting with unmitigated catastrophe" with missile strikes near nuclear facilities (NYT).
Lebanon front: Beirut strikes and Dahiya evacuation warnings suggest active escalation — second ground front possible.

Sources

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