Summary

The world is moving on without America. Forty countries — convened by the UK and notably excluding the United States — are meeting to find ways to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which a fifth of the world's oil flows. The emergency summit comes hours after Trump's prime-time address offered no plan for ending the war, only a vague "two to three weeks" timeline and a blunt message to allies: grab the oil yourselves. Markets delivered their verdict — oil surged 11% to $111/barrel, Wall Street fell sharply, and Asian indices tanked. The IEA warns April's oil crunch will be worse than March. Iran has set up a de facto toll booth at Hormuz, routing tankers through Larak Island. Meanwhile, Israel escalated its Lebanon offensive, Iran denied seeking any ceasefire, and central Israel was hit by one of the war's largest missile barrages.

Trump Speech Aftermath

• Oil surged 11% to $111/barrel: Crude oil futures crossed $111 per barrel on Thursday — up nearly 11% — as Trump's prime-time address — which offered a vague "two to three weeks" withdrawal timeline but no concrete plan — initially calmed markets. But the relief evaporated as traders digested the lack of substance. Oil reversed earlier drops and surged more than 10% by Thursday morning. S&P 500 futures fell 1.5%, Nasdaq futures slid 2%. Thursday is the last trading day before Good Friday — markets have not posted a weekly gain since the war began. (AP)
• Global markets rout: Japan's Nikkei fell 2.4%, South Korea's Kospi plunged 4.5% (worsened by consumer prices rising 2.2% on soaring fuel costs), Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 0.7%. European markets followed: Germany's DAX -1.6%, France's CAC 40 -0.8%, UK's FTSE 100 -0.2%. US futures pointed sharply lower. (AP)
• No clear plan, no endgame: The NYT assessed Trump met only 2 of 5 stated war goals. His address amounted to a declaration of victory without the conditions for one. (NYT)
• "Grab" Hormuz oil yourselves: Trump told allies to secure their own oil supply through the strait, extending his "not our problem" doctrine from Day 33. (NYT)
• Trump considering NATO exit: Amid a widening rift with European allies over the Iran war, the Kyiv Independent reports Trump is actively considering withdrawing the US from NATO — the most concrete threat to the alliance's existence in its 77-year history. (Kyiv Independent)

Diplomacy & International Response

• 40 countries meet to reopen Hormuz — without the US: In a striking sign of America's diplomatic isolation, 40 nations are convening emergency talks to find a path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The summit was convened by the UK. Australia's Foreign Minister Penny Wong is joining the talks, signaling broad Pacific engagement. (Guardian)
• Australian PM Albanese: war goals met, endgame unclear: In a measured public statement, PM Albanese acknowledged the war's stated objectives had largely been achieved but warned the endgame remains "deeply unclear" and the economic shocks from disrupted oil flows will last "months, not weeks." (Bloomberg)
• France to US: NATO is not your Hormuz force: France delivered a pointed rebuke, telling Washington that NATO exists to serve Euro-Atlantic security — not to provide offensive military support for operations in the Strait of Hormuz. (Reuters)
• Switzerland and Austria deny airspace for US military flights: Citing neutrality, both Switzerland and Austria rejected US requests to use their airspace for military flights to Iran — rare public rebuffs from traditionally quiet European states. (Swissinfo, Middle East Eye)
• Iranian President's open letter to Americans: President Pezeshkian published a direct appeal to the US public asking "which interests are being served?" by the war — attempting to drive a wedge between the American people and their government. (Reuters)
• Iran DENIES seeking ceasefire: Despite Trump's claims yesterday, Iran categorically denied requesting any ceasefire and vowed to continue counterattacking. Tehran's posture remains defiant. (Al Jazeera)

Military Developments

• Iran's ex-FM Kharazi gravely wounded, wife killed: Former Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi was seriously wounded in an apparent assassination attempt when his Tehran home was hit by an air strike. His wife was killed. The targeting of a senior diplomatic figure — not a military commander — marks an escalation in the strike campaign. (Al Jazeera)
• Iran vows "permanent surrender" from US and Israel: Iran's armed forces spokesperson declared Tehran will fight until its adversaries face "permanent regret and surrender," calling US assessments of Iran's capabilities "incomplete" and promising "more crushing, broader and more destructive" attacks. (Al Jazeera)
• Israel intensifies Lebanon attacks: The IDF expanded its strikes in Lebanon beyond areas of known Hezbollah control, hitting targets in regions not previously part of the conflict zone. The escalation raises fears of a broader regional conflagration. (AP)
• Top Hezbollah commander killed: Israel announced it killed a senior Hezbollah military commander — the latest in a series of targeted assassinations that have decimated the group's leadership. (AP)
• Massive Iranian missile barrage hits central Israel: One of the largest Iranian missile salvos in weeks struck central Israel, injuring at least 14 people. The attack underscores Iran's continued capacity to strike despite 34 days of bombardment. (BBC)
• Trump: strikes will send Iran "back to stone ages": NBC reports Trump told advisers that continued strikes would reduce Iran's infrastructure to rubble, echoing his earlier threats to "obliterate" the country's energy grid. (AP)

Economic Impact

• IEA warns: April crunch will be WORSE than March: The International Energy Agency's Fatih Birol warned that pre-war cargo ships carrying oil are now fully depleted, meaning April will see the full force of the Hormuz disruption hit global markets. The worst is not behind us — it's ahead. (CNBC)
• Iran sets up "toll booth" at Hormuz: In a remarkable development, Iran has established a de facto toll system at the Strait of Hormuz, rerouting oil tankers through Larak Island and extracting fees for passage. The arrangement effectively gives Iran leverage over global oil flows even as it faces bombardment. (CNBC)
• US gas prices top $4: Average US gas prices crossed $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, with some states seeing $5+. The political implications for Trump are mounting. (CNBC)
• China pivots industrial hub to coal and nuclear: Bloomberg reports China's major industrial regions are accelerating a shift from natural gas to coal and nuclear power as the war upends global gas supply chains. The energy transition is being reshaped by conflict. (Bloomberg)
• Strikes destroy Iran's two biggest steel mills — "irreversible" damage: DW reports that US-Israeli strikes hit Iran's two largest steel production facilities in Isfahan, dealing what analysts call an "irreversible" blow to Iran's industrial economy. Steel production was one of Iran's last major non-oil economic pillars. (DW)

Global Fallout

• UK hit by record fuel price rise and "biggest mortgage shock since mini-budget": Britain is reeling from the war's economic fallout, with record fuel price increases and a mortgage rate spike not seen since the Truss mini-budget crisis of 2022. (Guardian)
• Fuel crisis sparks panic and violence globally: The Washington Post reports fuel shortages are triggering panic buying and violence in countries most dependent on Gulf oil imports. (Washington Post)
• Gulf states consider bypassing Hormuz entirely — pipeline via Haifa: The Financial Times reports Gulf states are exploring a new network of pipelines, roads, and railways to stop relying on the Strait of Hormuz altogether. A key option: a trade route connecting the Arabian peninsula to the Mediterranean through Israel's port of Haifa. Saudi Arabia is already shipping 50,000+ bpd via its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea. If this becomes permanent, it would fundamentally reshape Middle Eastern energy logistics — and deepen Gulf-Israel ties. (JPost/FT)
• Oil demand destruction looms: CNBC warns Trump's 2-3 week timeline may not be short enough to prevent permanent demand destruction — where high prices force consumers and industries to permanently reduce oil consumption. Brent crude surged 60% in March alone. (CNBC)
• Palantir AI targeting system used in Iran strikes: BBC reports Palantir's AI platform Maven has been used by the US military to identify targets in Iran. Palantir UK's boss says it's "up to militaries" to decide how AI targeting is used in war — raising accountability questions. (BBC)
• Iran using war to hide surge in executions: The Guardian reports Iran appears to be exploiting the world's focus on oil prices to carry out a sharp increase in executions of political prisoners, withholding information on hundreds of deaths. (Guardian)
• France and Japan align on ceasefire call: Macron and PM Takaichi agreed on the need for a ceasefire and safe passage for shipping through Hormuz. (Bloomberg)
• Iran pledges safe passage for Philippine oil: In a selective diplomacy move, Iran guaranteed safe passage for Philippine-bound oil shipments through Hormuz — picking off US allies one at a time. (Middle East Eye)
• Iraq revives Syria land route for European oil: Baghdad has restarted overland oil exports through Syria, shipping 50,000 barrels per day of Basra crude via the Syrian port of Baniyas to the Mediterranean — with plans to increase volumes. The move marks a historic shift in regional energy logistics as Hormuz remains choked. (Middle East Eye)
• Iran warns Bushehr nuclear plant strike would be a "war crime": Tehran issued a pointed warning that any strike on its Bushehr nuclear power plant — an operational civilian facility — would constitute a war crime, raising the stakes as the US-Israeli target list appears to expand. (Middle East Eye)
• China steps in as peacemaker: In a turnaround from its muted early response, Beijing is now actively trying to mediate the conflict — a move the BBC says reflects China's growing strategic interest in the Gulf region. (BBC)
• Pakistan emerges as unlikely mediator: Pakistan has positioned itself as an intermediary in the conflict, leveraging its geographic proximity to Iran and its relationship with Washington. (BBC)
• Trump polled advisers about replacing Tulsi Gabbard: The Guardian reports Trump polled advisers on replacing his intelligence chief after displeasure with her Iran war testimony. (Guardian)

Investigations & Revelations

• WaPo: Pentagon's "bonkers" commando plan to seize Iran's uranium: The Washington Post reports the Pentagon developed a plan to spend weeks or months sending special operations forces to excavate Iran's nuclear material — a scheme described by former officials briefed on it as unprecedented in its ambition and risk. (Washington Post)
• Trump threatens civilian sites — escalation fears: Bloomberg reports new Trump comments warning about targeting Iranian civilian infrastructure have "reignited concerns of a wider escalation" among allies and military analysts. (Bloomberg)
• US burning through years of weapons stockpiles: ABC News reports the US expended 11,294 munitions worth ~$26 billion in just the first 16 days of the war — burning through years' worth of critical weapons stockpiles at an unsustainable rate. (ABC Australia)
• EXCLUSIVE: Greek ships secretly supplying Israel with oil and military cargo: Middle East Eye reveals at least 57 covert crude oil shipments (~47 million barrels) were delivered to Israeli ports between May 2024 and December 2025 via Turkey — with tracking signals disabled and false destinations listed, violating Turkey's trade embargo. In 2025, Greek-managed vessels also carried at least 13 shipments of ammunition and military materials for Elbit Systems. The ships are controlled by two Greek shipping dynasties: the Alafouzos family (Kyklades Maritime) and the Martinos family (Thenamaris). (Middle East Eye)

War Crimes & Accountability

• NPR: Who is held accountable if war crimes are committed in Iran? An in-depth NPR analysis examines the legal frameworks — or lack thereof — for holding any party accountable for potential war crimes in the conflict. The US is not a member of the International Criminal Court, Israel faces existing ICC warrants, and Iran's domestic courts are controlled by the state. The question of accountability looms larger with each passing day of civilian casualties. (NPR)
• 100+ international law experts: US strikes "may amount to war crimes": Over 100 international law professors in the US signed an open letter published by Just Security warning that US strikes on Iran violate the UN Charter and may constitute war crimes under the Geneva Conventions — particularly strikes on civilian infrastructure like bridges and power plants, which are protected as "objects essential for civilians." (Just Security, Reuters)

Developing — April 2

• Iran fires 4 missile salvos Thursday — cluster bombs hit Israeli civilians: Despite 34 days of bombardment, Iran launched 4 missile salvos at Israel since midnight, some equipped with cluster warheads. Four people were wounded in Bnei Brak, including 2 babies. An 11-year-old girl was critically injured by an Iranian cluster bomb. Iran's military spokesperson Lt. Col. Zolfaghari insisted Tehran maintains hidden stockpiles of arms and production facilities, calling US damage assessments "insignificant." The use of cluster munitions against civilian areas marks a dangerous escalation. (Times of Israel, AP)
• US-Israel strikes hit century-old medical research centre in Tehran: Al Jazeera reports US-Israeli strikes targeted a century-old medical research centre in Tehran, along with a bridge near the capital — part of an intensifying campaign following Trump's "stone ages" threat. (Al Jazeera)
• Tehran-Karaj bridge hit twice — "double-tap" strikes medics: The highway bridge linking Tehran to the western city of Karaj was struck twice by US-Israeli airstrikes. The second strike hit approximately one hour after the first — while medics were attending to the injured. At least two people were killed in the first strike. Iranian state TV condemned it as a deliberate "double-tap," a tactic that targets first responders. (CBS, Middle East Eye)
• Iraq's economy in freefall — 90% of budget from Hormuz oil: AP reports the war is devastating Iraq's economy. Baghdad relies on oil revenues for roughly 90% of its budget, most exported through the Strait of Hormuz. The collateral damage to a non-combatant neighbor underscores the war's widening impact. (AP)
• Pakistan-bound ships pass through Hormuz: Two ships successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz and arrived at Karachi Port — evidence of Iran's selective passage policy and Pakistan's growing mediator role. (Al Jazeera)
• Strikes near Mashhad airport: Columns of smoke rose over Iran's second-largest city after US-Israeli strikes hit targets near the airport. (Al Jazeera)
• Gulf states eyeing permanent Hormuz bypass via Haifa pipeline: Gulf states are considering expanding oil pipelines beyond the Strait, with one option being a route ending at Israel's port of Haifa — which would permanently deepen Gulf-Israel ties and reduce Iran's leverage. (JPost)
• CNN analysis: $200 oil "isn't as crazy as it sounds": CNN Business published a scenario analysis arguing that $200/barrel oil is plausible if the Hormuz blockade extends through April, citing the IEA's warning that pre-war cargo ships are depleted and April's crunch will be worse. (CNN)
• Iran army chief orders monitoring of US/Israeli movements ahead of potential invasion: Iran's army commander ordered heightened surveillance of US and Israeli military movements, citing intelligence suggesting ground invasion planning may be underway. (Middle East Eye)
• Russia requests ceasefire to evacuate Bushehr nuclear plant staff: Russia formally asked the US and Israel to ensure a ceasefire while it evacuates more Russian personnel from the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran — an operational civilian reactor built and maintained by Russia's Rosatom. The request underscores growing nuclear safety concerns as the strike campaign intensifies. (Reuters/RIA)
• Macron to Trump: "Be serious… don't speak every day": French President Macron delivered one of the sharpest public rebukes of Trump from any ally, criticizing his shifting war goals and public bluster. "Be serious," Macron said, adding that constant public messaging undermined diplomatic efforts. He faulted Trump for shifting US goals repeatedly during the conflict. (BBC, NYT)
• Hormuz summit outcome: 30 nations' military planners to meet next week: The UK-convened virtual summit concluded with a concrete next step — military planners from approximately 30 nations will hold talks next week on making the Strait of Hormuz secure for shipping. The British government said the talks would explore "collective defensive military capabilities" — but only after the war eases. (NYT)
• Iran's ceasefire conditions revealed: CNN reports Iran's conditions for ending the war include: full cessation of both US and Israeli strikes (including on Iranian proxies), guarantees against repeat attacks, reparations, sanctions relief, and recognition of Iran's authority over the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran's fear is that a ceasefire would merely be a pause allowing the US and Israel to regroup. (CNN)
• Bank of America Paris HQ attacked: French authorities charged four people, including three minors, over an attempt to ignite a homemade explosive device outside the Paris headquarters of Bank of America — an apparent war-related attack on US financial institutions in Europe. (France24)
• G7 + GCC summit planned for next week: In addition to the UK-led 40-nation summit, G7 and Gulf Cooperation Council countries are scheduled to meet separately next week to discuss the Hormuz crisis — signaling a multi-track diplomatic push. (Middle East Eye)
• Germany urges China to pressure Iran on Hormuz: Berlin has directly asked Beijing to use its influence with Tehran to help reopen the strait — a sign of how central China's role has become in the crisis. (Middle East Eye)
• UK hit by record fuel price rise and mortgage shock: Britain experienced its largest single-day fuel price increase on record, with mortgage rates spiking to levels not seen since the 2022 Truss mini-budget crisis. The economic fallout from the war is now directly hitting household budgets. (Guardian)
• Iran and Oman drafting protocol to "manage" Hormuz: In a significant diplomatic move, Iran and Oman are drafting a bilateral protocol to oversee tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian official said passage "should be supervised and coordinated" with the two countries — effectively formalizing Iran's control over the waterway while giving Oman a moderating role. (CNBC)
• IRGC attacks Amazon facility in Bahrain: Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps said it launched attacks on an Amazon data centre in Bahrain — targeting US corporate infrastructure in a Gulf ally for the first time. The attack marks a significant expansion of Iran's target set beyond military installations. (Middle East Eye)
• Qatar intercepts Iranian drone attack: Qatar said it intercepted an Iranian drone attack — the first confirmed targeting of the wealthy Gulf state during the conflict. (Middle East Eye)
• Macron: military option for Hormuz is "unrealistic": French President Macron explicitly ruled out a military solution for reopening the Strait, saying it would carry "unacceptable risks." He urged reopening through dialogue and cooperation with Iran, and rejected US criticism, saying France seeks peace and is not part of the US-Israel operation. France and Japan also aligned on a ceasefire call after talks between Macron and PM Takaichi. (Reuters)
• UK Hormuz summit: only UAE and Bahrain from Middle East: Key regional states including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Turkey, and Pakistan are NOT attending the UK-convened summit — only UAE and Bahrain. The coalition of ~40 countries is largely Western + Pacific. The absence of Gulf heavyweights signals deep reluctance to openly pressure Iran. (Middle East Eye)
• Russia offers to help resolve conflict: The Kremlin said Russia is willing to help mediate, adding a third major power (alongside China and Pakistan) positioning itself as peacemaker. (Middle East Eye)
• Pentagon may have violated rules of war: The NYT reports US troops were moved from bombed bases to hotels and civilian buildings across the Middle East — potentially violating the Department of Defense's own Law of War manual, which requires distinguishing military forces from civilians. (Independent/NYT)
• Trump: "I don't care" about Iran's uranium stockpiles: The Guardian reports the rationale for the war is being questioned after Trump dismissed concern over Iran's enriched uranium — the very threat used to justify the conflict. (Guardian)
• Kharrazi update: Middle East Eye confirms former FM Kamal Kharrazi, 81, was Iran's chief foreign affairs strategist under both the late Ali Khamenei and his successor Mojtaba Khamenei. His wife was killed in the strike on their home. He remains hospitalized in serious condition. (Middle East Eye)
• Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi suffers suspected heart attack in prison: The brother of Iranian Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi says the 53-year-old human rights activist was found unconscious in her bed at Zanjan Prison after a suspected heart attack. Officials have refused to transfer her to a hospital. Her brother warns that strikes near the prison since the war began have worsened conditions for all prisoners. (BBC)
• Hormuz summit update — only 25 ships in past 24 hours vs. normal 150/day: UK FM Yvette Cooper opened the virtual summit accusing Iran of hijacking "an international shipping route to hold the global economy hostage." She noted that just 25 vessels navigated Hormuz in the past 24 hours — down from the normal 150 per day. Cooper said the war would need to ease before deploying "collective defensive military capabilities." (NYT)
• Wall Street slides, oil hits $111: US stocks fell sharply on Thursday as crude oil futures surged nearly 11% to cross $111/barrel — the highest since March peaks. The energy sector surged while tech sold off. Brent crude hit $109+. S&P 500 fell ~1.5%, with the last trading day before Good Friday offering no respite. Markets have not posted a weekly gain since the war began. (CBS, Guardian)
• Houthis could worsen global oil crunch: Bloomberg reports that Houthi forces in Yemen, who previously disrupted Red Sea shipping, could now compound the Hormuz crisis — threatening the alternative routes that shippers have been using to bypass the strait. (Bloomberg)
• Iran claims drone attack on US fighter jets in Jordan: Iran's military claimed it carried out a drone attack targeting US fighter jets at the al-Azraq (Muwaffaq Salti) Air Base in Jordan, a key facility hosting American forces. The attack is part of Iran's broader campaign against US and allied positions across the region. (Middle East Eye)
• Kuwait intercepts Iranian missiles: Kuwait said it intercepted Iranian missiles and drones overnight — another Gulf state drawn into the conflict's expanding geographic footprint. (Middle East Eye)
• Amazon cloud facility in Bahrain damaged — Reuters confirms: Reuters confirmed that Amazon's cloud infrastructure in Bahrain was damaged by an Iranian IRGC strike, the first confirmed attack on a major US tech company's physical infrastructure in the war. (Reuters)
• Le Pen hammers Trump over energy crisis: France's far-right leader Marine Le Pen issued a fierce rebuke of Trump, saying the Iran strikes "were carried out blindly" and that "Trump clearly did not fully appreciate the consequences." A remarkable attack from a politician typically seen as a Trump ally. (Politico)
• UK Hormuz supply chain impact: The Guardian examines how the Hormuz blockade could affect UK food and medicine supplies, with disruption rippling through already fragile global supply chains. (Guardian)
• South Korea urges citizens to "save every drop of fuel": President Lee Jae Myung issued a direct plea to the public as the Iran crisis hammers Asia's fourth-largest economy. Consumer prices rose 2.2% on soaring fuel costs. (Bloomberg)
• Australia deploys elite SAS troops to Middle East: Australia has deployed Special Air Service soldiers to the Middle East on standby, signaling the conflict may draw in more nations. (Herald Sun)

Late Developments — Afternoon

• US tells Americans in Iraq: "Leave now": The US Embassy in Baghdad issued an urgent security alert warning that Iran-aligned militia groups may launch attacks in the Iraqi capital within 24 to 48 hours, potentially targeting American citizens and US-linked facilities. Americans were told to leave Iraq immediately. (NBC)
• UN Secretary-General: "It is high time to stop the war": António Guterres directly addressed the US, Israel, and Iran, calling for an immediate end to the conflict. "When the Strait of Hormuz is strangled, the world's poorest and most vulnerable cannot breathe," he said, calling on Iran to reopen the waterway. (NBC)
• Iran claims 7 million military volunteers: Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said 7 million Iranians signed up for military service in less than one week, calling it a "powerful campaign sweeping across the country." "You come for our home... you're gonna meet the whole family," he posted on X. (Ghalibaf/X)
• Iran's UN mission: Trump's "Stone Ages" threat is evidence of war crimes intent: Tehran's UN mission called Trump's threat to bomb Iran "back to the Stone Ages" evidence of "intent to commit war crimes under international humanitarian law," saying it reflects "ignorance, not strength." (Iran UN Mission/X)
• Ukraine and Iran wars starting to overlap: The Guardian reports European intelligence agencies believe Russia is supplying drones to Iran, while the US is pressuring Kyiv to stop attacking Russian oil facilities that keep oil prices high. The two conflicts are becoming intertwined. (Guardian)
• Egypt holds interest rates as war hammers economy: Egypt kept rates unchanged as the Iran war sent energy prices soaring and the Egyptian pound to a record low. (Bloomberg)

Evening Developments

• 🚨 Hegseth fires Army Chief of Staff mid-war: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth asked Gen. Randy George, the Army's top uniformed officer, to step down — an unprecedented wartime military leadership shakeup. George, a West Point graduate who served in the Gulf War, Iraq, and Afghanistan, has been Army Chief of Staff since August 2023. He is the latest in more than a dozen top generals and admirals fired by Hegseth since taking office. The move drew immediate bipartisan alarm, with critics calling it reckless during an active conflict. (AP, Reuters)
• Trump deliberately strikes civilian bridge, hails destruction — 8 killed, 95 wounded: The NYT reports Trump personally ordered the strike on the B1 highway bridge linking Tehran to Karaj — Iran's tallest bridge and a major transport artery connecting Tehran to the Caspian Sea. The strike killed 8 people and wounded 95, according to the deputy governor of Alborz province. Trump publicly celebrated its destruction, warning "more to follow." This marks the first time the US has openly acknowledged deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure in the conflict. (NYT, BBC, Axios)
• Iran degrading US/Israeli radar network: CNN reports Iran has been systematically targeting US missile detection infrastructure — destroying an AN/TPY-2 radar in Jordan, damaging a $1B+ Qatari early warning radar, and striking military communications infrastructure. The pattern suggests a deliberate strategy to blind US/Israeli defenses. (CNN)
• Red Cross warns medical supplies in Iran under strain: The ICRC warned that medical supplies across Iran are under severe strain as casualties mount and supply chains collapse under bombardment. (Middle East Eye)
• Gulf nations back UN resolution for "all necessary measures" to reopen Hormuz: Gulf states are pushing for a UN Security Council resolution authorizing the use of "all necessary measures" to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — language that would provide legal cover for a military operation. The move signals deepening Gulf frustration with Iran's blockade. (Times of Israel)
• Iranian missile strikes Petah Tikva, damages industrial buildings: An Iranian ballistic missile struck the Tel Aviv suburb of Petah Tikva on Thursday evening, causing significant damage to industrial buildings — demonstrating Tehran's continued precision strike capability deep into Israeli population centres. (Times of Israel)
• Trump sons' company selling drone interceptors to Gulf states under attack: AP reports Florida-based Powerus — which brought aboard Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. last month — is actively pitching drone interceptors to Gulf countries while they depend on US military protection. A former White House ethics lawyer called it unprecedented: "This is going to be the first family of a president to make a lot of money off war." (AP)
• Russia sends second oil tanker to Cuba amid energy crisis: Russia dispatched a second oil tanker to Cuba, following a 700,000-barrel delivery last week — exploiting the global energy crunch to deepen ties with Havana while the US is distracted by Iran. (Al Jazeera)
• 🚨 Chinese drone shot down over Iran — UAE/Saudi involvement suspected: Iran shot down a Wing Loong II drone over Shiraz — a Chinese-made attack drone operated by the UAE and Saudi Arabia, not the US. The downing raises explosive questions about whether Gulf states have joined offensive operations against Iran. Tehran initially misidentified it as a US MQ-9 Reaper. MEE previously revealed China sent drones to Iran before the war began. (Middle East Eye)
• Kremlin: Strait of Hormuz "remains open" to Russia: A Kremlin aide confirmed Iran is allowing Russian ships through Hormuz — further evidence of Tehran's selective passage strategy, rewarding allies while choking adversaries. (Middle East Eye)
• Houthis claim missile attack on Israel, vow escalation: Yemen's Houthi forces claimed a missile strike on Israel and promised further attacks, opening yet another front in the expanding regional conflict. (Middle East Eye)
• US stocks close higher on late rally: After a brutal day, US stocks staged a late recovery — Bloomberg reports Asian futures may open with modest gains on hopes the war is "slowly moving toward a resolution." (Bloomberg)
• 🚨 Trump threatens bridges and power plants next: Late Thursday night, Trump doubled down on infrastructure targeting: "The US military hasn't even started destroying what's left in Iran. Bridges next, then Electric Power Plants." He demanded Iran's leadership act "FAST." The threat came hours after the B1 bridge strike and directly contradicts Geneva Convention protections for civilian infrastructure. (Reuters)
• IRGC claims it downed an advanced fighter jet in the Gulf: Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps announced it shot down what it described as an advanced fighter aircraft over the Persian Gulf, while also claiming missiles and rockets from three fronts (Iran, Hezbollah, Houthis) hit Israel simultaneously. (Palestine Chronicle)
• Hegseth fires more senior military officials beyond Gen. George: After ousting Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George, Hegseth reportedly fired additional senior military officials — continuing an unprecedented wartime purge of military leadership. (WaPo)

What to Watch

• 40-nation Hormuz summit outcome: Can 40 countries agree on a framework to reopen the strait without US military backing? This could reshape the post-war order.
• April oil crunch: IEA says the worst is ahead. Pre-war cargo ships depleted. How high will prices go?
• Iran's Hormuz toll booth: Will more nations accept Iran's terms? Could this become a permanent arrangement?
• NATO fracture: Trump considering NATO exit while France draws red lines. Is the Western alliance surviving this war?
• April 6 Hormuz deadline: Trump's extended deadline is just 4 days away. What happens when it passes?
• Israel-Lebanon escalation: Strikes expanding beyond Hezbollah zones. Is Israel opening a full second front?
• Kharazi assassination fallout: Targeting a former FM — not a military commander — crosses a line. How will Iran respond?
• Iran's selective diplomacy: Iran is cutting individual deals (Philippines, etc.) while maintaining the blockade. Is the coalition fracturing?
• Gulf pipeline bypass: If Gulf states build permanent alternatives to Hormuz via Haifa, what does that mean for Iran's long-term leverage?

Sources

• Iran Sets Up 'Toll Booth' at Strait of Hormuz — CNBC
• 40 Countries Meet to Reopen Hormuz — Guardian
• Australian PM: War Goals Met, Endgame Unclear — Bloomberg
• Trump Stirs Market Angst With Vague Iran Timeline — Bloomberg
• China Pivots to Coal, Nuclear as Iran War Upends Gas — Bloomberg
• Iranian Missile Barrage Hits Central Israel — BBC
• Trump Met Only 2 of 5 War Goals — NYT
• Israel Intensifies Lebanon Strikes — AP
• IEA Warns April Oil Crunch Worse Than March — CNBC
• Trump Considering NATO Exit — Kyiv Independent
• France: NATO Serves Euro-Atlantic Security, Not Hormuz — Reuters
• Switzerland Denies US Military Overflight — Swissinfo
• Iranian President Open Letter to Americans — Reuters
• Strikes on Iran's Steel Mills — DW
• War Crimes Accountability in Iran — NPR
• Iran Denies Seeking Ceasefire — Al Jazeera
• Iran's Ex-FM Kharazi Gravely Wounded — Al Jazeera
• Iran Fires More Missiles, Demonstrates Continued Capability — AP
• Oil Rises 7%+, Stocks Fall After Trump Address — AP
• EXCLUSIVE: Greek Ships Secretly Supplying Israel — Middle East Eye
• UK Record Fuel Prices and Mortgage Shock — Guardian
• Hegseth Asks Army Chief of Staff to Step Down Mid-War — AP
• Trump Deliberately Strikes Civilian Bridge, Hails Destruction — NYT
• US Military Attacks Major Civilian Infrastructure for First Time — Axios
• Fuel Crisis Sparks Panic and Violence — Washington Post
• Iran Using War to Hide Surge in Executions — Guardian
• Iran Pledges Safe Passage for Philippine Oil — Middle East Eye
• Iraq Revives Syria Land Route for Oil Exports — Middle East Eye
• Iran Warns Bushehr Strike Would Be War Crime — Middle East Eye
• China Steps In as Peacemaker — BBC
• Pakistan Emerges as Unlikely Mediator — BBC
• Macron: Opening Hormuz by Force is Unrealistic — Reuters
• Only UAE and Bahrain From ME Join UK Hormuz Coalition — Middle East Eye
• Pentagon Moved Troops to Hotels, May Have Violated Rules of War — Independent/NYT
• UK Gathers 30+ Countries to Reopen Hormuz — AP
• Gulf States Consider Bypassing Hormuz With Pipelines via Haifa — JPost/FT
• Trump's Iran Timeline May Not Avoid Oil Demand Destruction — CNBC
• Palantir AI Targeting Used in Iran Strikes — BBC
• Trump Warns 'More to Follow' After Bridge Strike — Guardian
• Trump Sons' Company Selling Drone Interceptors to Gulf States — AP
• Russia Sends Second Oil Tanker to Cuba — Al Jazeera
• Hegseth Fires Army Chief of Staff Mid-War — WaPo
• Trump Threatens to Strike Iran's Bridges and Power Plants — Reuters
• 100+ Law Experts: US Strikes May Be War Crimes — Just Security
• Iranian Bridge Cut in Half — 8 Killed — BBC