Summary

The post-American order took another step forward. The UN Security Council will vote Saturday on a Bahraini resolution authorizing "all defensive means necessary" to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — but China has already signaled opposition. Iran claims to have shot down a second US F-35 over central Iran (unverified). In retaliation for the US destroying Iran's tallest bridge, the IRGC put bridges across American-allied Gulf states on its "hit list." Overnight strikes damaged Iran University of Science and Technology in Tehran. US intelligence privately warns Iran can still "wreak absolute havoc" despite 35 days of bombardment — directly contradicting Trump's public narrative of imminent victory. Pakistan's LNG surplus has flipped to a looming shortage. Trump's April 6 Hormuz deadline is now three days away.

UN Security Council & Diplomacy

• 🚨 UN Security Council to vote on Hormuz resolution Saturday: The UN Security Council will vote Saturday on a Bahraini resolution authorizing "all defensive means necessary" to protect commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz — for at least six months. The vote was pushed from Friday (UN holiday) to Saturday. China broke the earlier "silence procedure" and made clear it opposes any authorization of force, calling it "legitimizing the unlawful and indiscriminate use of force." Russia and France also broke silence on earlier drafts. A resolution requires 9 votes and no vetoes from the 5 permanent members (US, Russia, China, UK, France). (Reuters, DW)
• UK PM Starmer: Iran war outcome will "define us for a generation": British Prime Minister Keir Starmer pushed back against Trump's NATO exit threat, saying how Britain and the world emerge from this crisis "will define us for a generation." (Independent)

Military Developments

• 🚨 Iran claims second US F-35 shot down over central Iran: Iran's Mehr News Agency reported the IRGC claims to have shot down a second US F-35 fighter jet over central Iran. The IRGC said its Raad air defense system "seriously damaged" the aircraft. Iran's Tasnim News Agency released video purporting to show the interception. No US confirmation. The claim follows yesterday's IRGC announcement of downing an advanced fighter in the Gulf. If verified, this would represent a significant escalation in Iran's air defense capabilities. (MarketScreener)
• Iran puts Gulf bridges on its "hit list" in retaliation: After the US destroyed Iran's B1 bridge, Iran's IRGC has identified multiple bridges in American-allied nations as potential retaliatory targets — including infrastructure in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Abu Dhabi, and the Jordan-West Bank region. Iranian state TV broadcast the threat explicitly. (Fox News)
• Overnight strikes damage Iran University of Science and Technology in Tehran: An overnight strike in Tehran damaged buildings belonging to Iran University of Science and Technology — another civilian educational institution targeted as the infrastructure campaign intensifies. (Multiple sources)
• 🚨 CNN EXCLUSIVE: Half of Iran's missile launchers still intact: A CNN exclusive reveals approximately half of Iran's missile launchers remain intact and thousands of one-way attack drones remain in its arsenal — despite five weeks of daily US-Israeli strikes. Iran's tunnel network has significantly blunted the effectiveness of the air campaign. This directly contradicts Trump's claims that Iran's military is nearly eliminated. (CNN, Haaretz)
• Trump "humiliated" by own intel experts' verdict on war: The Daily Beast reports Trump's own intelligence community has assessed the war has not been as successful as his public remarks suggest — a rare public divergence between the president and his national security apparatus. (Daily Beast)
• Orthodox church in Tehran damaged by strikes: The St. Nicholas Russian Orthodox cathedral in Tehran sustained damage from two missile strikes — adding a religious and diplomatic dimension as Russia has been positioning itself as a mediator. (Multiple sources)

Economic Impact

• Pakistan's LNG surplus becomes looming shortage: Al Jazeera reports the war has transformed Pakistan's LNG surplus into a looming shortage, as global LNG supplies collapse amid the regional conflict. Pakistan — an early beneficiary of Iran's selective Hormuz passage — now faces its own energy crunch. (Al Jazeera)
• Asia's fuel crisis in human terms: The Guardian documents the daily reality of Asia's fuel crisis — from farms in New Zealand to factories in Delhi — showing how the oil crisis triggered by the Iran war is rippling across the continent. (Guardian)
• Israel's Lebanon offensive dividing communities: Bloomberg reports Israel's war against Hezbollah and invasion of Lebanon is dividing communities that have spent decades since the country's civil war seeking ways to live together. (Bloomberg)

Developing — April 3

• 🚨 IRGC claims strike on Oracle data centre in Dubai — UAE denies: Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed it struck Oracle's data centre and information infrastructure in Dubai — the second US tech facility targeted after the Amazon cloud centre in Bahrain. Dubai authorities denied the claim. This follows yesterday's confirmed Amazon facility damage. (Anadolu Agency, Times of India)
• Iran announces wave of retaliatory strikes across region: The IRGC announced coordinated attacks on "US-linked steel facilities in Abu Dhabi, aluminium industries in Bahrain, and Rafael arms factories in Israel" — expanding its targeting from purely military sites to industrial and economic infrastructure belonging to US allies. (Al Jazeera)
• 8 killed celebrating Nature Day near bridge strike: AP reports the B1 bridge strike killed 8 Iranians and wounded 95 who were celebrating Nature Day (Sizdah Bedar) — the last day of Nowruz, when Iranians traditionally gather outdoors for picnics. The victims were civilians marking a national holiday. Iran called the strike evidence of "the defeat and moral collapse of an enemy in disarray." (AP)
• No sign of war winding down as Friday dawns: AP: "There was little sign Friday of the war winding down as Israel said it faced incoming fire from Iran, Kuwait and Bahrain reported being under attack." Tehran continues to demonstrate strike capability despite Trump's claims of imminent victory. (AP)
• Trump doubles down on infrastructure targeting: Late Thursday night, Trump posted: "The US military hasn't even started destroying what's left in Iran. Bridges next, then Electric Power Plants." The threat directly contradicts Geneva Convention protections for civilian infrastructure and drew fresh war crimes warnings. (Reuters)
• 100+ international law experts: US strikes "may be war crimes": Over 100 international law professors signed an open letter via Just Security warning US strikes on civilian infrastructure violate the UN Charter and may constitute war crimes under the Geneva Conventions. The letter specifically cited bridge and power plant targeting. (Just Security, Reuters)
• "Disturbing trend" of strikes on non-military targets: France24 reports a pattern of US-Israeli strikes hitting universities, airports, and other non-military targets in Iran — a systematic targeting of civilian infrastructure that has drawn increasing condemnation. (France24)
• Iran fires missiles at Tel Aviv overnight — 4 wounded: Iran fired missiles at Tel Aviv triggering Israeli air defences, with four people lightly wounded. Fresh blasts were also heard in Jerusalem after the military warned of incoming fire. (Manila Times/AFP)
• F-35 shootdown claims escalate — Lakenheath squadron named: The IRGC's latest F-35 claim specifically identified the downed aircraft as belonging to the "Lakenheath Squadron" — the 48th Fighter Wing, USAF's primary F-35 unit in Europe. The IRGC said its "advanced new air defense system" destroyed the jet and the pilot's survival was "unlikely." No US confirmation. (Times Now)
• Energy markets "tuning Trump out": Yahoo Finance reports energy markets are beginning to discount Trump's statements after repeated whiplash — suggesting traders no longer treat his pronouncements as actionable intelligence. (Yahoo Finance)
• India exploring oil-for-rice barter with Iran: Punjab rice exporters are calling for a barter deal with Iran — oil for rice — as trade disruptions from the war reshape Asian commerce. (Indian Express)
• 🚨 Drone strike sets Kuwait's Mina al-Ahmadi oil refinery ablaze: Iranian drones struck Kuwait's Mina al-Ahmadi refinery early Friday, setting several operating units on fire. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation confirmed the strike via state news agency. No injuries or environmental impact reported. The refinery is one of Kuwait's largest — the strike represents a significant escalation against Gulf oil infrastructure. (Reuters)
• Iran warns UNSC against "provocative action" on Hormuz vote: Iran warned the UN Security Council against any "provocative action" ahead of Saturday's vote on the Bahraini resolution mandating a force to protect Hormuz shipping. The warning raises the stakes for the vote and signals Tehran will view any authorized military deployment as an act of aggression. (Economic Times)
• Westpac CEO warns Iran war may spark Australian recession: Westpac's CEO Anthony Miller warned Australians of "a growing risk the country could slip into recession" as the war drives fuel prices higher and forces interest rate rises — the first major Australian bank to issue a recession warning linked to the conflict. (ABC Australia, Bloomberg)
• F-35 imagery emerges on Telegram: Iran's Tasnim News Agency posted images on Telegram purporting to show wreckage with "U.S. Air Forces in Europe" markings on what appears to be a tail section. CENTCOM has not responded to requests for comment. (CNBC)
• Last pre-war oil shipments arriving in Asia this week: The NYT reports the final oil and LNG deliveries that passed through Hormuz before it was closed are expected to arrive in Asia this week — meaning the full impact of the blockade hits next week. The last tanker shipments to Europe should have already arrived. (NYT)

What to Watch

• Military planners' summit next week: Can 30 nations coordinate defensive operations without US command? Will they risk confrontation with Iran?
• April 6 deadline: Trump's extended Hormuz reopening deadline is 3 days away. What happens when it passes?
• Gulf states' fence-sitting: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman skipped the UK summit. Are they negotiating with Iran behind the scenes?
• Iran's toll booth formalization: Reports suggest Iran and Oman are drafting a protocol to "manage" Hormuz passage. Is Tehran cementing permanent control?
• Economic data: Markets rallied late yesterday, but can the relief hold through Good Friday and the weekend?

Sources

• UN to Vote on Hormuz Resolution as China Opposes Force — Reuters
• UNSC to Vote on Gulf-Led Resolution — DW
• Iran Claims Second F-35 Shot Down — MarketScreener
• Iran Threatens Allied Bridges in Retaliation — Fox News
• Trump Humiliated by Intel Experts' Verdict — Daily Beast
• Pakistan LNG Surplus Becomes Shortage — Al Jazeera
• Asia's Fuel Crisis in Human Terms — Guardian
• Starmer: Iran War Outcome Will Define Us — Independent
• Israel's Hezbollah Offensive Divides Lebanon — Bloomberg
• Iran Claims Oracle Data Centre Strike; Dubai Denies — Anadolu Agency
• Trump Threatens Bridges and Power Plants — Reuters
• 100+ Law Experts: US Strikes May Be War Crimes — Just Security
• Disturbing Trend of Non-Military Targets — France24
• Energy Markets Start Tuning Trump Out — Yahoo Finance
• Drones Hit Kuwait's Mina al-Ahmadi Refinery — Reuters
• Half of Iran's Missile Launchers Still Intact — CNN Exclusive
• Westpac CEO Warns of Australian Recession — ABC Australia
• Trump Threatens Power Plants as F-35 Reports Emerge — CNBC