Summary

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf announced on Monday, May 26, that the full ratification vote on the P5+1 peace framework will take place on Thursday, May 29, setting up a final verdict with just 48 hours to spare before the May 31 diplomatic deadline expires. The accelerated timeline follows Sunday's successful procedural vote that cleared the framework from committee review. Moderate MPs celebrated the quick scheduling as evidence of momentum toward ratification, while hardliners warned they would use the next three days to push amendments demanding written sanctions guarantees and verification mechanisms that could force the entire deal back to renegotiation.

What to Watch

• Amendment battles — whether hardliners can gather enough votes to attach conditions that would void the agreement or send it back to negotiations
• Supreme Leader signals — whether Ayatollah Khamenei issues guidance before the May 29 vote directing MPs toward ratification or allowing the process to proceed independently
• P5+1 reactions — whether major powers publicly acknowledge the May 29 vote timing as sufficient or warn that any changes to the framework void the entire deal
• Parliamentary whip counts — early vote projections from moderates and reformists on whether they have the numbers to pass the framework without amendments
• Oil market confidence — whether Brent crude continues its decline on optimism about the accelerated timeline or rebounds if amendment threats gain traction
• U.S. military posture — whether Pentagon shifts deployments or force levels in the Gulf ahead of the vote
• May 31 countdown — 5 days remaining before the stated P5+1 deadline expires

Sources

This report will be updated throughout the day as events develop. Key sources include Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera, BBC, Bloomberg, CNBC, and official Pentagon briefings.

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