Summary

With Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf's May 29 vote just 48 hours away, hardline MPs are circulating draft amendments demanding written U.S. sanctions guarantees and verification mechanisms that could force the entire peace framework back to renegotiation. Moderate coalition whips scrambled Tuesday to secure the votes needed for clean ratification as P5+1 diplomats publicly warned that any changes to the agreed text would void the deal entirely. The escalating parliamentary battle comes with just four days remaining before the stated May 31 diplomatic deadline expires and the window for a negotiated settlement closes.

What to Watch

• Amendment text releases — whether hardliners formally table their proposed changes or use them as negotiating leverage
• Vote whip counts — early projections on whether moderates have secured the simple majority needed to pass the framework without amendments
• P5+1 diplomatic pressure — whether major powers intensify public warnings or shift to private lobbying with Iranian lawmakers
• Supreme Leader signals — whether Ayatollah Khamenei issues guidance before Thursday's vote
• Oil market reactions — whether Brent crude continues its decline on optimism or rebounds if amendment threats gain traction
• U.S. military posture — whether Pentagon announces deployments or force-level changes ahead of the deadline
• May 31 countdown — 4 days remaining before the stated P5+1 deadline expires

Sources

This report will be updated throughout the day as events develop. Key sources include Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera, BBC, Bloomberg, CNBC, and official Pentagon briefings.

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