Summary

With Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf's ratification vote scheduled for tomorrow (May 29), Iran's parliament entered its final 24 hours of debate over a peace framework that could end three months of war or collapse under the weight of hardliner amendments. Moderate coalition whips worked through Wednesday to secure enough votes for clean passage while hardline MPs circulated draft amendments demanding written U.S. sanctions guarantees. P5+1 diplomats warned publicly that any changes to the agreed text would void the deal entirely, setting up a high-stakes showdown with just three days remaining before the May 31 diplomatic deadline expires.

What to Watch

• Final whip counts — whether moderates have secured the simple majority needed for clean passage without amendments
• Hardliner amendment strategy — whether hardliners formally table amendments or use them as negotiating leverage
• Supreme Leader intervention — whether Ayatollah Khamenei issues guidance before Thursday's vote
• P5+1 diplomatic signals — whether major powers shift from public warnings to private lobbying
• Oil market positioning — whether Brent crude continues recent decline on optimism or rebounds on uncertainty
• U.S. military posture — whether Pentagon announces force-level changes ahead of the deadline
• May 31 countdown — 3 days remaining before the stated P5+1 deadline expires

Sources

This report will be updated throughout the day as events develop. Key sources include Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera, BBC, Bloomberg, CNBC, and official Pentagon briefings.

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